Belarusian IT industry enters stagnation: migration halts as workforce ages and new talent dries up

Key findings

• The percentage of tech specialists living abroad has decreased for the first time in several years—down to 55,3%.
• The average age jumped by a year and a half, with minimal new talent entering the industry.
• Companies have shifted their focus to development talent.

Relocation at a standstill

For the first time in several years, the proportion of IT professionals living in Belarus is growing. All migration waves have passed. Outsourcing companies have exhausted assets that are profitable to «sell» under new conditions, while product companies have relocated everyone economically feasible to move.

Although most tech professionals (survey participants) live outside the country, the situation is stabilizing. A trend toward a roughly 50-50 split is emerging. Slowly but surely, the number of professionals in Belarus will grow—university graduates have limited employment options when starting their careers.

This will be a gradual process, and they won’t create significant impact even in the domestic market—few vacancies exist, and layoffs continue. The active job market has stalled.

Regions show signs of life (statistically speaking)

The consequences of mass relocation are reflected in the geographic distribution of tech professionals within the country. If previously there was little activity beyond Minsk’s beltway, now there’s even less within it, causing Minsk’s share to actively decline.

Naturally, most of the industry remains concentrated in Minsk, but internal relocation to the capital is no longer as attractive—due to general industry stagnation and the popularity of remote work.

Notably, while western regional cities were previously more active, Gomel has now surpassed them, likely for the simple reason that it’s the second-largest city in the country by population. Overall, activity has stalled not just in Minsk—small changes are purely statistical in nature.

Women’s share in the industry remains unchanged. But potential partners abound

Unsurprisingly, amid general stagnation, the gender distribution hasn’t changed. Female participation grew during the market boom, but now the workforce consists of practically the same professionals.

In the past, the idea of «marrying a programmer» as a way to secure a good future was often discussed. It was mostly hype from non-industry media.

Despite the industry’s overall maturation, thirty percent remain single regardless of gender. Go for it!

Time to take the ageism articles seriously

Against the backdrop of the crisis in all locations (and reduced demand for juniors), the rising average age of Belarusian tech professionals is predictable.

This trend is best reflected in how the share of specialists with less than two years of experience has contracted. They now make up less than 10%!

The proportion of juniors or interns won’t fall below 2,5%—there will always be a layer of people working just for portfolio building.

This is confirmed by the declining number of juniors—down to just 5%.

It’s worth remembering that after the glory days of outsourcing, when people could become seniors in just three years, promising specialists now spend at least a couple of years in entry positions. This means there are even fewer completely new specialists entering the profession.

Optimization: almost all production roles growing, even management, at the expense of others

Ignoring fluctuations, the number of testers, programmers, tech leads, and even project managers and analysts has recovered to previous levels.

It’s logical to assume that companies are «adjusting their staff» toward greater efficiency—cutting everything that doesn’t directly generate revenue in outsourcing or indirectly in product companies.

Relocating entire families is expensive even for large firms, and maintaining a team of marketers and recruiters in Minsk, let alone abroad, is no longer appealing to anyone.

The average age of specialists overall and developers in particular has increased by a year and a half. The industry is rapidly aging simply due to a significant decrease in the influx of new talent and challenges for relatively experienced professionals, regardless of location.

It’s also worth noting the declining proportion of women among developers: previously we talked about parity at certain levels, but now there’s a rollback. Simply put, the industry is focusing on its most experienced specialists, who are predominantly male.

Summary

— Get used to seeing the same faces around. Clearly, the industry has transitioned from slowdown to stagnation.

— Relocation has completely stopped, with cross-border movement for work in both directions now episodic.

— The industry is becoming highly technical again—no extra personnel.